Target
$32.80 → $32.55
Current stock research snapshot · 8/6/26 20 days old
APLDApplied Digital Corp.
Investment conviction●●○○○2 of 5 · current snapshot
Research target$32.55Current stock price target
Investment thesis statusSTRENGTHENEDLast reviewed 8/6/26
Market cap$7.77BSnapshot value · 8/6/26
Research history
See all APLD changes ↗What changed
Thesis status
INTACT → STRENGTHENED
Target
$32.85 → $32.80
Applied Digital builds and leases MW-scale, high-power-density AI data centers on a repeatable shell model (customers supply servers under 15-yr take-or-pay leases) — a direct toll road on hyperscaler compute demand. 1.4GW contracted CITL with only ~100-175MW live shows the ramp is early; pricing on new deals is up 15-20%. Execution and financing risk are the main unknowns; watch delivery schedule through 2028 and tenant concentration.
Q4 FY2026 earnings Jul 27 (FY ends May): rev ~$258.7M (vs ~$95M est; +407-532% YoY); adj EPS $0.04 (vs -$0.22 est); FY26 rev ~$611M +167% [x.com/TheTechInvest]. 1.4GW contracted CITL, >$35B base-term lease value (up to ~$86B w/ renewals), ~70% investment-grade tenants; Polaris Forge 1 (400MW CoreWeave, ~$11B) 175MW live; Forge 2 (~200MW Oracle, ~$5B) nearing fit-out; Forge 3 early construction; advanced hyperscaler talks for Delta Forge at higher pricing [x.com/matthew_sigel, x.com/APLDdigital]. Next earnings: Q1 FY2027 early Oct 2026 (TBA).
1) Hyperscaler lease cancellation or renegotiation at any campus. 2) Inability to refinance ~$5B debt load at manageable rates → dilution spiral. 3) Power interconnection failure at a major campus (Polaris Forge 430MW critical). 4) CoreWeave (CRWV) credit event cascading through APLD tenant base. 5) AI capex cycle inflection — hyperscalers cut back, demand for new DC capacity collapses. 6) CHRN spinoff value collapses or creates liability overhang. 7) Construction cost overruns + timeline delays push revenue beyond debt service capacity.
MIXED — institutional analysts unanimously bullish (avg target ~$72, all Buy). Retail/CT sentiment: cautious on X, seeing drawdown as buying opportunity but wary of debt load and 'AI debt bubble' narrative. Sector-wide AI infra selloff driving bearish positioning. Short interest 27% indicates significant skepticism. Zacks quantitative screen: Strong Sell (contrarian to analyst consensus).
Snapshot · 8/6/26🟡 Mixed · ins-$3.5M · 13F 13+/11-×0.5 · short↓0.25
Snapshot · 8/6/26