Target
$132.49 → $135
Current stock research snapshot · 7/31/26 26 days old
MRKMerck
Investment conviction●●○○○2 of 5 · current snapshot
Research target$135Current stock price target
Investment thesis statusNEEDS_MORE_DATALast reviewed 7/31/26
Market cap$321.97BSnapshot value · 7/31/26
Research history
See all MRK changes ↗What changed
Target
$127.20 → $132.49
Healthspan taxonomy seed — see taxonomy_path
Merck Q2 2026 earnings; Keytruda revenue (LOE timeline); Gardasil expansion; Winrevair PAH launch; pipeline oncology updates
Thesis breaks if Keytruda LOE ~2028 comes faster than modeled (US biosimilar erosion on a 48.7%-concentrated revenue base, Q2 already -1% YoY), Gardasil China keeps declining (H1 -9% YoY), or balance-sheet stress ($16B M&A in 6 months, net debt/equity 1.11x, 35-36% tax rate) constrains pipeline funding. (vault 2026-08)
Bullish — Positive Phase 3 mRNA melanoma vaccine results with Moderna (Aug 19, 2026); Keytruda combo keeps cancer from returning. [X search Aug 2026]
Snapshot · 7/31/26🟡 Mixed · ins-$30.0M · 13F 18+/7-×0.5 · short↑0.25
Snapshot · 7/31/26