Viasat is building resilient multi-orbit (LEO/GEO) secure satellite communications for sovereign/defense, aviation, maritime and fixed broadband customers. The digital-sovereignty moat is the combined stack of orbital bandwidth, spectrum access, secure terminal certification and capital-efficient multi-orbit orchestration - hard to replicate without spectrum rights, launch/commissioning execution, and OEM/customer certification. FY2026: $4.640B revenue (+2.7% YoY), record $4.93B contract awards, record $4.07B backlog (0.88x revenue). Ramp is gated by utilization - service entry, certification, terminal adoption - not demand discovery. DS layer: Satellite Communications (DS-2).
Current stock research snapshot · 7/22/26 35 days old
VSATViasat, Inc.
Investment conviction●●○○○2 of 5 · current snapshot
Research target$37.68Current stock price target
Investment thesis statusINTACTLast reviewed 7/22/26
Market cap$10.06BSnapshot value · 7/22/26
US Space Force contracts, Link 16 modernization, and tactical waveform demand
Thesis breaks if VS-3 F2/F3 service entry slips past Sept 2026 without CS revenue lift, Starlink/Kuiper win major airline IFC or gov mobility, net leverage >3x through FY27 without asset sales, or DAT serviceization stalls. (vault 2026-08)
Neutral — Featured in space ETFs (e.g. 5.67% in $NASA); $1.4M $90 calls bought Jan 2027 but $412k $70 puts purchased Oct 2026. [X search Aug 2026]
Snapshot · 7/22/26🟡 Mixed · ins-$40.0M · 13F 18+/7-×0.5 · short↑0.38
Snapshot · 7/22/26